Request a free consultation to discover how Janes can provide you with assured, interconnected open-source intelligence. The Pentagon is preparing detailed analysis and working out how to support Ukraine's military i n the medium and long term, including after the war with Russia has ended, according to three. The author gives special thanks to Grace Hwang, Kateryna Halstead, Jared Thompson, and Catrina Doxsee for their help with research and analysis, particularly with the battlefield map. tel: (703) 522-1820. Meanwhile, several reports indicate that Ukrainian military. Military Analysis. This website or its third-party tools use cookies, which are necessary for its functioning and required to achieve the purposes illustrated in the cookie policy. No direct sponsorship contributed to this brief. Johnson is intrigued by truck-mounted weapons, especially Frances Caesar, which is a 155mm howitzer mounted on a six-wheeled truck. Syrskyi also. How technology, both old and new, has shaped the war in Ukraine so far. It has taken control of critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants and steel plants, and rerouted internet through Russia. Still, Russia has adopted the so-called Grozny tactics of indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas and near-complete razing of cities. Ground forces. Russia is not engaging only in a campaign of air power, which would have signaled a lack of willingness for it to incur monetary and human costs. Ukraines procurement processand bypassed the Ministry of Defenses bureaucracyby crowdfunding the purchase of communication devices, laptops, generators, telescopic sights, and advanced drones for combat and reconnaissance. the Atlantic Council. Images Courtesy of Getty Images. DoD's Office of Strategic Capital: Attracting and Scaling Private Capital in Support of National Security, The Future of Quantum - Building a Global Market, Future of U.S. This week, we saw only minor changes in the northern area of operations, with Russia making slight progress in encircling Kharkiv and Kyiv. Liam Collins, Founding Director, Modern War Institute, United States Military Academy West Point. Brief More recently, there were 19 U.S. and European soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants in Bosnia in 1995 and 20 soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants in Kosovo in 2000.36. Compared with weapons such as Russias BM-30 Smerch multiple rocket launcher with a range of around 45 miles the U.S. M109A7 Paladin 155mm self-propelled howitzer only has a range of around 15 miles with conventional shells, and 20 miles with rocket-assisted projectiles. In addition, Russian forces encountered numerous command and control problems, including a paucity of secure communications, which undermined their ability to synchronize and coordinate attacks. Please enable JavaScript for this site to function properly. publishers of For example, the 9M729 cruise missile, which is fired from the Iskander-K short-range ballistic missile system, is one of the Russian militarys most advanced weapons systems with precision-strike capabilities.22 The cruise missile has roughly a half dozen socket attachment points that permit data to move through the heat shield. Since 1945, flying artillery has replaced big guns as the favored source of fire, especially in advanced Western-style militaries such as those of the United States, NATO nations and Israel. To some extent, that vulnerability has been muted in Ukraine. Hospitallers, a volunteer paramedic organization, has trained hundreds of paramedics to work on the frontlines and evacuated thousands of wounded combatants and civilians since 2014. 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Until that offensive begins, Russia will continue targeting Odesa with air and naval fires, with little regard for collateral damage to the historic city. Sign up to receive expert analyses from our community on the most important global issues, rapid insights on events as they unfold, and highlights of the Council's best work. Ukraine may offer a glimpse into the future of artillery. The United States and NATO have provided extensive funding for the Ukrainian government and their Ministry of Defense since the 2014 coup-de-tat. Foreign Affairs, Published by the Council on Foreign Relations. No single nation state nor any combination of nation states can match NATO combat capabilities. Indeed, drones may be the key enabler for armies with limited capabilities for directing artillery. The latest open-source intelligence on the Russian build up on the Ukrainian border from Janes, Janes Intara - Frequently Asked Questions, View our latest news and analysis on the Ukraine conflict. Russian actions, specifically the movement of Western Military District assets in Belgorod, Central Military District forces in Bryansk, and Eastern Military District forces in southeastern Still, their compulsory service typically lasts for only a year, and conscripts have generally not been effective fighters.39 Russian soldiers were given limited advanced notice that they were going to invade Ukraine, undermining readiness and logistics planning.40, Third, Russian forces failed to conduct basic maneuver warfare against Ukrainian forces, preferring instead to bombard Ukrainian cities and villages in a war of attrition.41 Problems on the ground were complicated by Russias broader failure to conduct an effective combined arms campaign and to synchronize effects. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. likely belonging to the 1529th Air Defence Regiment stationed in Khabarovsk has been unloaded at Luninets railway station, about 50 km from the Ukrainian border. Towed guns have the advantage of being simpler than a tank-like weapon such as the Paladin, which tasks the crew with not just firing the cannon, but also all the strenuous maintenance of a heavy armored vehicle. To answer the main questions, this analysis relied on several types of information. Janes analyst Tom Bullock delivers analysis on the events in Ukraine. NDIA is not responsible for screening, policing, editing, or monitoring your or another user's postings and encourages all of its users to use reasonable discretion and caution in evaluating or reviewing any posting. At the training center in Yavoriv, U.S. and other Western military instructors trained Ukrainian troops in combat tactics, battlefield medicine, and dismantling improvised explosive devices. The bulk of Russian ground forces is composed of BTGs, which are combined arms units typically drawn from companies and battalions in existing brigades. This meant that one of Russias primary ways to strike deep into Ukraine was through cruise missiles launched from Russia, Belarus, and maritime vessels in the Black Sea. Climate and Energy Leadership, Russias Ill-Fated Invasion of Ukraine: Lessons in Modern Warfare, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program, Media Relations Manager, External Relations. The rest of this brief is organized into three sections. Click on the image for Ukraine conflict - Refugee and IDP crisis (SITREP). Russian forces constructed and reinforced some railheads, bridges, and roads, and Russian naval successes along the Sea of Azov allowed Russian ships to resupply Russian forces by water. Without a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, a major U.S. and Western military objective should be to provide sufficient military assistance to help Ukraine retake territory in the east and south. "Russia may prevail militarily, but there will be a resistance . But weapons and ammunition from Western countries were essential to Ukraines ability to sustain the fight against Russia. The on-going conflict in the Ukraine proves that the United States, European Union, the Ukraine, and the NATO Alliance hold overwhelming militarty superiority over the Russian Federation. Russian conscripts are generally prohibited from serving in military operations abroad except when Moscow formally declares war, unless they volunteer as soldiers. First, Ukrainian forces could launch a series of spoiling attacks that prevent Russia from building up forces. As a former Seargent Ranging Technical Specialist in the IDF, for a battery of M107A1 self propelled 155 mm Howitzers, we already could fire with 50 meter readius accuracy or even better, if meteriological air current data was provided. How healthy the interface is between the Wagner forces and Russian army command is less easy to define and there are indications that Wagner does not enjoy full access to Russian combat support services. Russia will also likely face long-term supply chain challenges for some weapons systems because of Western economic sanctions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). It became obvious in recent weeks that both the German government and public have reservations about sending German tanks to Ukraine, a country that was so ravaged by combat in the Second World War. Eastern Military District (EMD) ground forces have begun deploying to several sites in Belarus, mainly along the country's southern border with Ukraine. Finally, the Russian TOR-M2 air-defense system utilized an oscillator designed in the United Kingdom, which is located in the computer that controls the radar.23 These supply chain challenges will likely impact Russias short- and long-term supply of components to conduct stand-off attacks, forcing Russia to look for substitute markets. Towed guns are a lot easier to train people on, Johnson said. Microsoft worked closely with the Ukrainian government and cybersecurity staff from other governments and private companies to identify and remediate Russian threat activity against Ukrainian networks before and after the Russian invasion.52 In January 2022, the Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center identified wiper malware in over a dozen Ukrainian networks and alerted the Ukrainian government.53 Microsoft established a secure line of communication with Ukrainian cyber officials to provide real-time threat information and offer technical support to assist Ukrainian efforts to identify and defeat Russian-linked cyberattacks over the course of the war.54 Microsoft worked with Ukrainian government officials to enable controlled folder access, a Microsoft Defender feature, and helped Ukraine run endpoint detection and response solutions.55. Carla Martinez Machain The assessment focuses predominantly on the operational level of warfare, especially the planning and conduct of the military campaign.1 The operational level links the tactical utilization of forces to strategic objectives and includes such aspects as fire and maneuver, logistics, intelligence, command and control, and planning.2. Atlantic Council military fellows. Budanov predicts that the coming months will see decisive battles that will significantly impact how this war ends. In the early phases of the war, Russia aimed to pin down Ukrainian air defenses around the country by conducting ballistic and cruise missile strikes across the country, including Kh-101 cruise missiles deployed from Tu-95 Bear and Tu-160 Blackjack bombers flying in Russian and Belarusian airspace. Event Recap The Scowcroft Center Military Fellows Program, housed by the Forward Defense practice, hosts military fellows from participating branches of the US military and the armed forces of US allies and partners each year as part of a twelve-month fellowship program. Ukrainian officials dawdled on implementing U.S.-proposed reforms to increase civilian control of the military, expand professional military education, and clean up the corrupt defense procurement system. WASHINGTON Ukraine's soldiers have blown up bridges to halt advancing Russian ground troops. Moreover, there are no indicators that a large-scale drawdown has begun. In the south, Russia has been more successful, but the offensive has noticeably slowed. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. This varied approach decreases the likelihood of Russia's making a quick, low-casualty victory, but it also signals Russia's resolve for war. In the north, Russia is transitioning into siege tactics around Kyiv, and the immediate risk of Ukrainian defeat seems to have passed. NO ARCHIVES. Still, the war in Ukraine is likely to be protracted. , New Atlanticist Some recent footage posted to social media also indicates Russia is still moving forces west towards the border from deeper inside Russia. That changed in February 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion. For instance, U.S. military instructors trained the new Ukrainian Special Operation Forces in clandestine operations behind enemy lines, sabotage, and informational-psychological warfare. In recent weeks, we have also seen the increased use of forces associated with the Wagner Group. More proactive reforms in civilian control and defense procurement, In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine. The planned amphibious operation against Odesa again failed to materialize, though it is still possible this week. Furthermore, the Ministry of Defense, led by Taran, and the Ministry of Strategic Industries dragged their feet in reforming procurement practices and failed to place orders for crucial weapons. continue unabated to deploy into separatist controlled areas of Ukraine. Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine very early in the morning on Feb. 24, 2022, by launching missiles at military targets, including airfields and military command centers in major Ukrainian cities. Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine very early in the morning on Feb. 24, 2022, by launching missiles at military targets, including airfields and military command centers in major Ukrainian . The Leopard 2 series is also backed up by ongoing R+D, tactical experimentation and large supplies of spare parts. These adjustments improved Russias ability to move spare parts, munitions, fuel, and other matriel to forward-deployed Russian forces. With a range of 150 km . Theyre a lot more durable as far as being moved around a lot, and there are fewer maintenance requirements for a howitzer towed behind a truck, especially if you have long distances to cover.. Russia's military build-up in Belarus and along the Ukrainian border has continued unabated over the past 14 days. By the time Russian forces had secured Hostomel Airport in late February 2022 and were in place to launch an attack on Kyiv, they lacked the combat power to seize the city. Below are a series of recent analysis pieces focusing on Russian troop movements on the border with Ukraine, that leverage the data collected, structured, verified and interconnected by Janes. Russia has attempted to annex some of this territory through a crude form of state-building. Kyiv saw reforming the political institutions and processes in the security sector as burdensome and less pressing than progress at the tactical level. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could be an extremely costly fight for both nations. Control of territory will continue to ebb and flow around these lines, including around such areas as the Donbas. More advanced weapons and platforms will be critical to overrun entrenched Russian forces. In the early phases of the war, Russia aimed to pin down Ukrainian air defenses around the country by conducting ballistic and cruise missile strikes across the country, including Kh-101 cruise missiles deployed from Tu-95 Bear and Tu-160 Blackjack bombers flying in Russian and Belarusian airspace.16 The Russian air force then expanded its target list to include Ukrainian military infrastructure, arms shipments from the West, fuel facilities, bridges, and even civilian targets. However, the collapse of the Russian Federation will prove the European Union and NATO complete economic control of the European Continent from the Atlantic seaboard to the Ural Mountains. Putin appears to have threatened their use when he stated that the "consequences" of an attempt to strike back at his invasion would provoke a response "never seen in history.". It concludes with policy implications for the United States and its Western allies and partners. ing methods of personnel management. U.S. security assistance works best when the leaders of countries that receive such help are highly motivated to strengthen their militaries. For instance, the Come Back Alive foundation, a nonprofit that aims to equip Ukrainian forces, improved Ukraines procurement processand bypassed the Ministry of Defenses bureaucracyby crowdfunding the purchase of communication devices, laptops, generators, telescopic sights, and advanced drones for combat and reconnaissance. Russia will continue to solidify the land bridge from Crimea towards the Donbas. The withdrawal of some units identified by the Russian MoD, such as the 3rd and 150th Motorised Divisions, also matter very little. Image: Ukrainian soldiers run through a forest, in footage said to show combat with Russian troops near the Kyiv region, in Moshchun, Ukraine in this still image obtained from undated handout video via Ukrainian Military TV and REUTERS. It would outclass many of the Russian tank variants still in use and it was actually designed to counter Soviet tanks in the context of the Cold War. Request a free consultation to find out how in a world of fake news and ever growing conflict, Janes can provide you with unbiased, verified open-source intelligence. Including extracts from Janes Intelligence Briefing series, these webinars provide an exclusive opportunity to delve more deeply into the most topical issues. Ukraines military has defied expectations in its war with Russia, and many analysts attribute its success to U.S. help. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW He also points to the significance of industrial infrastructure to support artillery, such as depth of munitions stocks, munitions manufacturing capability and sovereign manufacturing capability of replacement parts such as barrels which require some specialist engineering, which is not easily established.. The prime place given to the Leopard 2 in these discussions is due to the fact that there are large numbers of this highly-regarded tank that are relatively proximate to Ukraine. Smaller scale efforts around the world have produced so-called Faberg egg armies, militaries that are expensive to build but easy to crack. The maintenance of these main battle tanks also requires significant training and a supply of specific spare parts. Yet they have had some success at Soledar and have been heavily committed to the fighting at Bakhmut. At 27 tons for the former and 40 tons for the latter, the internal autoloader would have kept the crew under armor and not needing to get out to reload. New Atlanticist is where top experts and policymakers at the Atlantic Council and beyond offer exclusive insight on the most pressing global challengesand the United States role in addressing them alongside its allies and partners. In a separate case, the Security Service of Ukraine detained the president of a leading defense manufacturer for alleged corruption. Second, the Russian invasion force was far too small to seize and hold territory, particularly with a Ukrainian population that rose up against the Russian military in a variation of what the Chinese revolutionary leader Mao Zedong referred to as a peoples war. As Mao wrote in his book On Protracted War, the richest source of power to wage war lies in the masses of the people. Mao argued that in a well-organized resistance effort, the invading force will be surrounded by hundreds of millions of our people standing upright . The partial mobilisation of reserves has further allowed Russia to deploy these second-line troops into defensive positions, while at the same time allowing for the redeployment of more seasoned and regular units into manoeuvre formations. It has forcibly deportedor, in some cases, tortured and executedpro-Ukrainian civilians and encouraged ethnic Russians (and pro-Russian civilians) to remain.6 Russia has also replaced Ukrainian government officials with hand-picked, pro-Russian officials. March 3, 2022. Senior Russian officers began to deploy forward, where they became targets for snipers and artillery strikes. It is an important transportation hub and sits astride a nexus of road networks. It makes sense to have a new artillery system besides the M109 and the NLOS-C was tested to work even though it may have the range of the M777, it is light, mobile and self-propelled, and might be able to bring 155mm SPH back to the USMC and US Army Light Forces instead of the towed M777. Russian forces came into range of Ukrainian artillery units and exposed more of their depth to raiding.31 Russian forcesalso ran into numerous logistical challenges in their failed effort to seize and hold the city of Kharkiv. Kyiv was, An existential threat from Russia did what U.S. encouragement alone could notincentivized Kyiv to tackle corruption in. As we approach the first anniversary of the beginning of the war in Ukraine, there is much speculation as to what the next few months will bring. Second, the Russian air force faced recurring logistics challenges, including running low on stocks of long-range, precision-guided munitions. reformed its noncommissioned officers corps. How the war unfolds in 2023 is harder to predict. The low ratio was also problematic because of the substantial number of conscripts deployed to Ukraine, who were ineffective and suffered from poor morale. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, setting off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. Without access to rail transport and with roads clogged with Russian vehicles, Russian ground forces failed to move fuel, munitions, spare parts, and other matriel quickly and efficiently to forward-deployed units. Another was a force disposition map of the battlefield, in which CSIS analysts compiled and assessed Russian and Ukrainian tactical and operational activity. It now appears that Germany, Britain and the US have all decided to send consignments of main battle tanks to Ukraine. New rockets will extend Ukraine's reach. But in Ukraine, mobility has become synonymous with survival. In addition, Elon Musks company SpaceX activated Starlinka satellite internet constellation that provides high-speed, low-latency broadband internet using advanced satellites in low earth orbitin Ukraine and sent additional network terminals, including over 10,000 dish antennas.56 Starlink enabled members of the Ukrainian military to carry out sophisticated intelligence collection and fire support operations against Russian positions.57 Many of the Starlink kits donated to Ukraine included a 23-inch-wide receiver dish that needed to be mounted outside, as well as a cord that connected to a simple router that projected a Wi-Fi internet signal.58 Starlink helped blunt Russias attempt to jam signals, block the internet, and undermine Ukrainian command and control capabilities. This ability to form a uniquely comprehensive foundational intelligence picture There is going to be a mix of artillery, Johnson said. The resilience of Ukrainian resistance is embarrassing for a Western think-tank and military community that had confidently predicted that the Russians would conquer Ukraine in a matter of days . Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has seen several iterations of its army seriously impacted, first in the open war of movement of the early weeks and then in the attritional, defensive slog of late 2022. On display in Ukraine is the full panoply of modern artillery: a bewildering array of towed howitzers, truck-mounted cannons, self-propelled armored guns and multiple rocket launchers manufactured by numerous nations. Additionally, it will likely spin up its logistics systems to sustain its forces during a protracted war. These problems contributed to the suspension or firing of several senior military officials, such as Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel, commander of the 1st Guards Tank Army, for dereliction during the offensive against Kharkiv; Lieutenant General Vlaislav Yershov, commander of the 6th Combined Arms Army, for failing to capture Kharkiv; and Vice Admiral Igor Osipov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, following the sinking of the flagship cruiser Moskva.12. When Russia invaded in February 2022, Ukraine had to repurpose Stuhnas it had manufactured for Middle Eastern clients. After all, the United States provides security assistance to many countries with mixed results. Washington, DC 20036. All rights reserved. China also uses wheeled artillery, including the new PCL-181 155-mm gun. Delivery of U.S. and NATO 155mm and 105mm howitzers and especially M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, multiple rocket launchers, which can shoot GPS-guided projectiles out to 50 miles has enabled Ukraine to conduct devastating strikes against Russian ammunition dumps, command posts and key bridges and do so without suffering crippling losses to counterfire. These will include American Abrams tanks, the British Challenger 2 and the German Leopard 2 tank. Doing so required both reforming the defense institutions and increasing security cooperation with the West. The poor Russians, on the other hand, spends far less than $70 Billion annually on defense. In addition, roughly a dozen Russian generals and other senior officials were killed on the battlefield, such as Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev, Lieutenant General Yakov Rezantsev, Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, Major General Kanamat Botashev, Major General Andrey Kolesnikov, and Major General Oleg Mityaev.13 These firings and deaths may have exacerbated command and control problems that the Russian military was already experiencing. ongoing R+D, tactical experimentation and large supplies of spare parts. Russia now appears set to pressure Ukraine into accepting disadvantageous peace terms by inflicting horrific damage and casualties on the population of Ukraines major cities, strangling its economy and ability for resupply, and potentially causing a humanitarian disaster by disrupting the spring harvest. Drones and counter-battery radar, which can instantly pinpoint artillery as it fires, have made shoot-and-scoot tactics a necessity. Its pilots and air defenses have prevented Russian fighter jets from conquering . New Atlanticist Russian military, intelligence, and police officials have penetrated cities and villages, rounding up and detaining protesters and pro-Ukrainian sympathizers.8. We use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. At the least, it suggests that cannons are back with a bang. The most dramatic event of late 2022 was Russia's withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnieper at Kherson in November and this was heralded by some western pundits as a sign of imminent Russian collapse. Although Russian forces moved closer to the capital, there was no major offensive against either city this week. Regardless of the outcome, Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision is already a historic act of aggression, one that has not been witnessed on the European continent since World War II. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.64. Johnson sees the perfect artillery weapon as having a high rate of fire, high mobility, some degree of armored protection and the ability to quickly process targeting data. What do these lessons suggest about the future of the war? Ukrainians fought Russians with Ukrainian weapons operating on Arabic interfaces. Its out of the question to return the Kherson region back to Nazi Ukraine, said Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-appointed deputy head of the military-civil administration of Kherson region. At the same time, the redoubled motivation of Ukrainian leaders has simplified the challenge of delivering the country security assistance. The simmering war in eastern Ukraine between 2014 and early 2022 was not enough to compel the Ukrainian leadership to implement crucial changes in its security sector. These are often dismissed in western media as ex-convicts and mercenaries and their use has been associated with a perceived deterioration in Russian capacity and battlefield atrocities. Liam Collins But winning back territory will be difficult for Ukraine. Continue unabated to deploy into separatist controlled areas of Ukraine could be an extremely costly for! Air force faced recurring logistics challenges, including running low on stocks of long-range, precision-guided munitions attacks on areas. Going to be protracted some success at Soledar and have been heavily committed to the capital, there was major... Spoiling attacks that prevent Russia from building up forces of delivering the country security assistance fight for both nations areas. 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